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14/04/20
10:35
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Originally posted by Gareth:
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Yes I have read that - it's one opinion, one that can't be necessarily ignored, with 30% decline in demand, 1B barrel storage capacity and we 20m/Barrel/day in excess of requirements, and probably only slow sluggish return to demand are some forecasts. At the same time the balance Saudi budgets they need $60-80/barrel and Russia needs $40 - but have good monetary reserves. It costs a lot of produce US shale (I believe $40+) whilst it's cheap out of Saudi and Russia ($10-20/barrel). In the short term for sure it maybe low prices - the interim in the system is not small I gather. Medium term is good I think still, but if you buy now, you have to be prepared fully for it to go lower. But who can predict the low point. I emailed Beta Shares and asked what would happen if oil prices went to $0 (or low single digits) or would there be a circumstance that this etf could cease to trade, predictably they didn't reply. I assume it means OOO would just trade low.
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Oil won't trade at $0 anytime soon and OOO would trade on market value, not oil price. Like currently OOO is trading 10% above NAV and the price will be there because people believe Oil will eventually get back to $50 a barrel.