Sharebiz - I am still in shock and will post all my thoughts once more facts come to light. Currently only three things are clear:
1. The drilling of Rosella has been suspended due to MEL not meeting a condition of its license.
2. MEL has been referred to ICAC.
3. The Rig has been cancelled.
The media appears to be painting it as MEL representing the well as conventional whereas the OCSG feels differently - even though Kingfisher flowed freely and the signed off REF had 'conventional' on the front page. There must be more to this but until more is known we could guess all day.
The media is representing the ICAC issue as a connection to Obeid through ERM. I cannot see how this has any legs at all. However, as they say - when there is smoke there is fire. Again, we are low on details.
The rig cancellation is simply that. Plenty of rigs in the sea, but it will cost us money.
At this point I feel a little like Monty Python's Black Knight. It is merely a flesh wound - I just don't know if it is completely terminal as yet. We have been smashed twice by an extremely poor government and it is questionable as to whether we will stand on our own feet again. I can't see a quick backflip, as that will be a admission that the government stuffed it up.
Ultimately I think the government was scared of a high profile confrontation less than a year from an election. I do not think they understand the scale of what they have just allowed to start. Santos and AGL are next in the scopes, with foreign investment in both NSW and Australia being a very, very good chance of being collateral. I for one will not invest in NSW again. It is a basket case.
At this stage I am holding, as I feel that with the right lawyers we will have a good chance of winning a court battle. Ultimately, for the long term holders we are at a level where we might as well have lost everything anyway.
In short I am devastated, but holding.
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