cos

While it's all a bit quiet I thought I'd post the following (again - it has been posted before)from a Cairn presso last year talking about the COS. It says 20 or 25%. My question is can anyone recall what the Conoco Phillips view is, ie is it 20 or is it 25? It's statistically relevant as 2 shots at 25% is almost a coin toss (.46?) but 2 shots at 20% is materially less healthy. If anyone else is bored and would care to answer I'd be grateful. P.S I love the comments about super materiality and repeatability.....
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This is the reason that Conoco farmed into our block as soon as we had this battened down and mapped. What you have off the shelf is a number of sediment entry points and a number of fan systems at different times and different ages. You have multiple stacked fan systems and sometimes you can see they have different orientations. We are going to be drilling one which we call the Northern Fan. Please remember that we don’t give our prospects names until they are discoveries. It’s the traditional convention rather than the modern one; so we are drilling the Northern Fan which we can see 280 million barrels in one of the horizons and over half a billion in another. The point here is this is obviously super material for us, it’s super material for a major but also if it is successful the repeatability on the acreage and that really is a powerful message to understand if we do get the success. Everything we are talking about we’re in the 20, 25% chance of success not the one in ten in the frontier phase of Greenland.======