The BRL just hit 4.06 to the us$, a new record devaluation low.
Socgen which made this correct call from 3.40 to 4.0 in weeks were spot on.
Its down from Q2 average of 3.07 to now 4.06 ie 33% lower since 30 june & even during this trading halt lower 3.40-4.06= 66c or 19.4% in just 5 weeks....this is incredible!
WIth a BRL this low MBNs cost of production COP is slashed sharply see here-
Q1 COP $ 4.86 BRL 2.86 NP 6.20 as announced
Q2 COP $ 4.49 BRL 3.07 NP 5.40 as announced
On my maths -
BRL of 4.00 = $3.13 COP
BRL of 4.06 = $3.04uslb COP
Today MCR declared cop of 5.80, v mbn 3.04! Mbn cop is half of mcr & close to SIR WSA now valued at $1,100M & $650M respectively. MBN MC is a paltry $77M about 10 times lower than these 2 ni stocks.
With a BRL at 4.06 record low, MBN COP at 3.04 - NP of 4.40 = gross margin of $1.36uslb up from $0.90 on 30 june & up from $1.00 only 6 weeks ago. Thats a 40% margin expansion in 5 weeks despite a lower NP.
MBN has now secured itself as a global low cost producer with no debt & rising production & rising profit margin expansion...what!
At this slashed costs n rising profit, they can boost staff, mining, shipping, production, capex, funding...but wait ....they have already done that for the last 9 months!
We can now see this as a LT plan by brasil govt & MBN that ensures lower expenses, they deserve the gold medal in currency devaluation without social dislocation & hyper inflation.
The Slashing of costs so fast so deep of 33% In Q3 has been incredible to watch. There is no brasil ni producer that has achieved this.
in feb we saw a 5 bagger from 3.4c to 17c from a mere 50c or 20% BRL drop, what move will we see on a 99c BRL drop slashing COP by 33% in one Quarter? 1 bagger, 5 bagger, Disallowed?
Forget any new finance, offtake, deals, debt, CNs or shares....this COP slashing is enough to see this reopen at a multi bagger just like in february, but this time there are no shares left to trade, MBN share register has been saturated with no sellers for 2 months in flatline low volume patterns...its been drier than the saharan desert at noon on a black rock in a sauna.
The freefloat shares we estimated were less than 10M left or 1% with US NHs owning 75% & Wellington & BCEE buying on market another 80M+ 50M = 130M or 14% with the HC rebels owning now about 7.0% after larger buying by us also. Who will sell their shares with COP at $3.04 & profit margin expanding?
My question is, regardless of any other news, we have just witnessed during this TH the mother of all cost reductions much bigger n sharper than even in that 31 bagger run in 2007 or 22 bagger run in june 2014.
This is gonna fly ladies n gentlemen.
MBN Price at posting:
8.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
