ALD 0.91% $33.30 ampol limited

Very positive result and expectations for future. Future margin...

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    Very positive result and expectations for future. Future margin for gold sales is and likely to continue to be be seriously good!

    Although the cash/working capital position was obviously very tight last quarter ALD is over that HUMP and with significant gold held/sales not yet credited at the end of September I expect current cash position is looking very sound and by December will be excellent.

    Gold price average for October in A$ terms will be more like $1,100 so looking at a current margin of at least A$500 per oz. If this continues for the rest of the quarter we can in simple terms expect a $10,000,000 (20,000oz at $500 margin) cash flow positive quarter. Cash costs are expected to fall further and stockpiled ore building up will ensure continued "steady state" flow of head grade into the plant from here on.

    As mentioned in the report Allied is now poised to reap the benefits of a lot of hard work in a tough environment. The share price will recover as some semblance of logic and confidence returns to the share market.

    For what it is worth I will state today that the ASX has reached it lowest point today where all the bad news and fear has been priced in. The Bear is now totally exhausted and ready to hibernate for the Northern Hemisphere winter. Stocks will now be sought on true fundamentals and value rather than sold on fear. Some of the P/E's for Companies with sound balance sheets and growth prospects (Yes there are some) are very appealing to say the least. There are some companies that will not survive so investment choice must be very selective.

    Now is a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy in at the very bottom of the "bust to end all bust cycles" (save for the Great Depression where there was no "lender of last resort").

    The are some great Australian junior miners with solid balance sheets (who will survive) with solid resources that will bounce back. A lot of investors are ignoring the fact that with the Aussie Dollar back down in the low 60 cent range against the greenback there are still some hugely profitable projects out there - particularly the gold miners.
 
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