Cot data from last Friday's report (24th) for the period 14th to 21st September. As always I'm just looking at some of the major currencies, focusing on changes in large spec positions, full details at www.cftc.gov, and this time round the data includes the Bank of Japan intervention Mk I ..... exciting stuff....
Euro: Total open interest up by 7000 to 222,000. Longs decreased very slightly to 53K, shorts decreased by 15,000 to 50K ! So overall the market has shifted to slightly more longs than shorts. That is a massive decrease in short positions in the scheme of things, about 25% down on same period last week.
GBP: A very small decrease in the open interest, and the large specs decreased both long and short positions by pretty much exactly the same amount. Nothing doing here. Still slightly more shorts than longs.
Yen: Total OI down by 20K to 127K. Hmm, not as much as I expected. But wait, long yen positions decreased by - hmmm, 33%, by 21,000 - to 40K. Shorts increased slightly to 18K. Still overall long yen by 2:1.
AUD: Total OI up by 11,000 to 140,000. So up another 10% or so. Longs up another 5%, 3500, to 77K. Short positions decreased by a similar amount, 3,500, to 18K. So the overall market is now more than 6:1 long AUD. That is hugely one-sided. Is there anyone left to buy the AUD? The commercial traders have increased their short positions more than simply being the 'other side of the trade' would suggest, too.
