That is always a difficult issue in terms of what gives best value to shareholders. Hopefully the first few wells will provide good cashflow and minimise cap raising.
From there recent ann regarding nearby wells to raven giving 1-2mmcf and 30-40 barrels condensate that would give income before costs in the region of $10K per day (assuming $4-5/mmcf in to the pipe and $80/Bbl of concentrate (shorter chain hydrocarbons than crude so better yeild of fuels/cheaper to refine so worth more - prices can be around $100/bbl)
$10K/d -$1K/d running costs per well gives an income of about $3m per well per year if all goes well.
The cost of sinking and connecting such a well (about 10000 foot) is about $1m including drilling, casing and initial completion operations - to which you need to add permitting and pipe/plant. Drilling should take about 2-4 weeks. Raven 1 was completed in three weeks.
At this flow rate payback is about three months. Given they have the cash for a few wells I would rather they get those into production and fund further wells from cashflow and minimise dilution. In this fashion they should be able to drill approx 2-3 wells per year for each well that is is good production, rapidly increasing from three-four wells this year to maybe 10-12 next year (allowing some to fail - note failed wells are much quicker and cheaper than fully developed ones - unless you are GDN)) then up to say 30-50 over the next few years.
Sometime in the next few years though it would be nice to slow down the drilling so we can start receiving dividends.
This is looking a modest way into the future and relying on continued good results on at least 60% of wells (a fair assumption as few of these are really wildcats).
lots of potential growth and potential for a dividend up to 50c or even a dollar per share with a SP of several dollars within the next five years.
This may sound bullish though it is actually reasonably conservative and below the performance of Goodrich Petroleum.
Good luck to all. There should be plenty of time to get on board for more as this starts to climb.
That is always a difficult issue in terms of what gives best...
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