I was looking at the cotton chart at NYBT. Isn't it shows a perfect text book chart of a commodity run. Please refer to the weekly chart below:
It shows double bottoms, triple bottoms and triple tops, higher lows and finally what looks like an explosive run. It would be perfect, if it can hit the number of 170 before turning down. 170 is 100% of 85 to complete the current pattern. But 75% run isn't that bad either. I believe the top might be in with time scale though. In this 10 yr weekly chart I have marked major highs and lows and list them as follows: 26/10/01 - Low to 31/10/03 High - 735 days 31/10/03 High to 11/2/05 Low - 469 days 11/2/05 Low to 7/3/08 High - 1120 days 7/3/08 High to 14/11/08 low - 258 days 14/11/08 low to 12/11/10 high - 725 days
These dates are approximately close and look at the number of days and it seems they are all somehow related to each other. So either we'll see the low in next ~258 days or high in next 400+ days (to reach 1120 days). Personally, if I hold the product, I would sell now. (I would like to emphasis on the product i.e. cotton, not a futures contract). Also note the months of Feb, Mar, Oct Nov for major turns. If we look at the daily we might get more statistics. My interpretation is the top is in but the price is testing a support level. If it forms a lower top, that will be a clear sell signal. I feel so satisfied with this chart. Cheers PMT
