cougar raises almost 5 million, page-5

Amazing how that worked, if others want to try it in the future here are a couple of the methods I used.

Using actual number of listed options here are the results I calculated:

Maximum on balance volume reached for CGMO was 623600.

Final on balance volume at options expiry = 483720

So taking ratio between the Max OBV and OBV at expiry gives 0.7756892 (483720/623600) multiplied by the number of listed options = 19819653 (0.7756895 X 25551013). If you use this figure and multiply it by the exercise price of 0.25c you get $4,954,913. Which is only a variance of $26,442 from the actual amount raised... margin of error = 0.53%.


The other method I found interesting was using the time intervals between fund raisings.

GCM's first date of trade was the 16th of December 2003 where it announced it had raised 5.8m.

Toomey hill sale 1/9/2005 netted 5.08m 625 days after listing.

Options expiry 31/12/2006 488 calandar days from Toomey hill sale.

Thus 488/625 = 0.7808 X 25551013 listed options = 19950230 X 0.25 = $4,987,557 Variation from actual amount raised was $6,202. 0.125%

Naturally the volume-based method is only applicable if options were expiring at or close to the money ... like CGMO.

It’s quite remarkable.