The median survival time after diagnosis is 7,5 years. The treatment effects were 48% and 30% on the UMSARS measuring • Speech• Swallowing• Handwriting• Cutting food• Dressing• Hygiene• Walking• Falling• Orthostatic symptoms• Urinary Function• Sexual Function• Bowel Function. At the same time, there was around 16% ( my measure from the picture) less brain atrophy in the treated patients than in the placebo.
It is clear that UMSARS and brain atrophy are correlated. If these patients were the median people, they would have had 5.4 years to live from the beginning of the study. After the study, the worsening of UMSARS reading is difficult to estimate, but the development of brain atrophy is a bit easier if the speed is estimated to be the same as in the first year in even though nothing is linear in biology. However, with this kind of calculation, the 434 treated patients would have almost 60% less brain atrophy than the placebo-treated. How much do you need to live is a question, but IMO 16% /y is a lot and will explain why placebo patients will die earlier than the treated patients.
I guess that 434 treatment could add perhaps 2 more years to a median MSA patient. Something to consider in the FDA, IMO.
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