The volume weighted average over the last 2.5 years is $1.60with...

The volume weighted average over the last 2.5 years is $1.60
with 105M shares trading hands. Now lots of those shares may be traders swapping back and forward, but to assume the majority of owners are long term holders in a world with average holding periods of less than 9 months is not a good basis for decision making.

Then there is the concept of certainty equivalents.
How much is a possible future payment worth compared to a certain payment now.

A payment of $3.50 in 3 years discounted at 20% is equivalent to $2 today. Plus I bet there are a lot of holders kicking themselves for not selling up around $3 and with over 36M shares recently traded above $2 a whole of people desperate to get out at close to break even.

A takeover offer at around $2, represents a 115% premium to the current market valuation. I don't recall a takeover with that kind of premium ever failing. Heck $1.50 may get enough sellers.

Of interest is the GSK contract for Relenza. Anyone know if there are change of ownership previsions in it?