Peter,
Can't disagree. The only serious negative I can see is the geopolitical risk, but then since the broader geopolitical risk gives poo upside, this upside probably outweighs risk. I am quite comfortable to have my current 10 -15 % of portfolio on this one for the longterm, excl. a planned modest top up. If their operations weren't all in the one country I"d probably add another 5%.
Something which you didn't mention Peter is the management. I get the impression of a high level of integrity as well as them definitely high technical and oilfield management competency.
Note how few shares were issued to founders/directors in the IPO, a good sign imo. McGann hired Turkish nationals from his network for the field technical roles; good sign. Helping the local poor (microcredit) can only reduce risk of being targetted by terrorists etc -another good sign of good management. I could go on.
Margins are high, reserves will grow, production will be longlife above current levels. Seems to stand out in the oiler pack atm IMO. Been dissapointed with so many, incl ARQ,STU,HDR,ROC.
IMO the Euroz report on their website gives a fair, possibly conservative assessment.
IMO the odds of not making a substantial gain over the next 12 months is quite low.
EL
IPM
incremental petroleum limited
