I don't believe we will make it past June in Senegal IMHO.
To recap;
- The chair expected us to be on the world's radar post appraisal of SNE.
- FAR expected an offer last calendar year for more than a $1. Then had delays, also Oil shat itself.
- All this crap around financing to stay in the game, IMHO when it is unveiled and re-risked somewhat further I believe it will be game on. May / June pre any more CR's.
- As for the POO, the long term futures post 2021 are still very close to $56 USD which ties with FAR's estimate of being able to extrapolate more value than today's pricing.
http://www.barchart.com/commodityfutures/Crude_Oil_WTI_Futures/CL given production around then, we or the acquirer could even forward sell MMBLS' ahead of time to secure these rates once production is a give in.
- The AUD's further capitulation. Meaning a higher per AUD valuation for FAR in local speak, cheaper offshore for Acq.
- The geopolitical environment - Oil will again become a matter of national security IMHO with a destabilized Middle East. Unfortunately this is a growing reality of what could eventuate here, by no means is this something I want to happen.
- As for comments around the JV bleeding FAR out and offering them a low price, come on Peep's - you only have to look at CNOOC and the offer for Jubilee or anyone of the thousands of O&G acquisitions per year - to understand that there are other companies outside of a consortium in a find like this wanting assets like this. Also that COP and CNE are not the only companies in the world that could make offers. CNOOC, Total, BP, Shell, Aramco are all shopping for quality assets.
http://www.ogfj.com/mergers-acquisitions.html
I moot it is mathematically possibility to achieve beyond a dollar in light of the fact, even with tight hole constraints the risked valuations of Senegal are already 56 cents according to an analysis of CNE's analysts pricing then unpacking as follows;
View attachment 129552
Please note I have updated the SNE find total to be closer to ~700MMBLS which is from a credible source.
I have also upped the FAN find somewhat to 750MMBLS PRMS.
The rest is as risked, but bear in mind the fact that SNE being deemed commercial will increase the COS of all of the blue column and also significantly improve the profitability and in term the NPV of the find.
These totals do not include any takeover premiums.
Read back through the Hardman resources posts from yesteryear on chat forums and you will see claims from similar posters saying it wont be taken over and the run is finished. Watch the Bigmen Video around Kosmos and how they climbed from a 300M company to $6B USD through Jubilee.
Only reposting this research in light of your assertion that FAR reaching a dollar is mathematically impossible.
I wish I could say more.
(20min delay)