could bhp and rio jv rossing south?, page-10

Apologies Pro. Responded to your post on TIPPA's computer (long week...). For the record I've posted it again below.


The sticking point is thus: Rio want control of EXT. Their 15% stake in the company and their stake in KAH are a strategic blocking holding rather than a basis from which to simply acquire full ownership (if it is/was, they missed the boat). The purpose of which is to thwart both direct on market and indirect attacks via overlapping ownership of the other major SH by either the Russians, Chinese or whoever.

You are correct, Rio are in the unique position of being able to commission a mine/mines virtually immediately given proximity to Rossing and are alone in their ability to substantially mitigate the approx $1b capex required as a result of the above.

All the other holders (especially KAH) are IMO in it for the massive first stage profit ( a real company maker for KAH, and one that would propel them into full financially autonomous project development wherever they like), not the glory of mining U. As such, the entire non-RIO registry are a real risk to the latter's preferred end game.

As a result, RIO can now only achieve full control by paying us what its worth, and this will not be revealed until the resource upgrade/DFS is available in the next few months. To put all the above more simply, IMHO all but RIO can be bought off.