I don’t think it’s necessarily over but this is the biggest risk...

I don’t think it’s necessarily over but this is the biggest risk to PEP-11 in my opinion. Together with the fact that they failed to comply with their work program requirement to drill a well before Feb 2020 (which wasn’t affected by Covid).

This means that there are valid reasons for KP to say no to the extension.

This means that if the politics overtake the issue then Advent and Bounty won’t be able to rely on the “we did everything we had to so it’s a sovereign risk problem if you say no” line. It’s easily explainable as being Advent’s fault for failing to comply, so therefore there’s no sovereign risk problem.

It’s gone from 80/20 to 10/90 in my mind. Still a chance but boy oh boy you’ve got to be brave from here.