Thanks lordolean, I fear you are right.
With around conservatively $700m full book value after debt or erring on the side of negative @ $350m fire sale value, that would leave around $225m after preferred shares which would translate to roughly 0.26 per share.
As you've said, GNS have done all the hard yards, appropriate studies completed, permits are in place. I think I read somewhere that total costs since inception is around $200m, but I'm not going to search to confirm the estimate.
The deathly silence from GNS, would seem to indicate that financial backing or a Investment Partner has not been able to be secured. One has to agree that this leaves GNS a bargain basement takeover by UPM or similar, even at 0.40 per share. That's providing they would want a Pulp Mill in Tasmania. On paper (irony) a $450-$500m pa Mill would be attractive business.
As you've also said, the alternative is a further sell off, debt repayment and back into the timber business for the time being. Would the present management want that? I'd doubt it, but stranger things have happened.
Given the possible solvency value of the shares, I intend to hold for a short while and see what direction GNS heads if any or see if there is any sharks circling intent on taking a bite. I'm probably being optimistic but the price vicinity of worse case scenario and the present SP, makes little difference for me regarding Capital protection. Which at the end of the day is the name of the game.
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