could hit a dollar, page-9

... $4.50 now.

BNBG is very illiquid and is not well understood which I think keeps people away.

Long term, when the company returns to full health (which could be a way off), there is also a pseudo-cap on how high BNBG can go - from $4.50 to $100 give or take a few bucks for the return rate. BNB in theory at least could go from 39c to who-knows?

The interesting thing is the risk profile between the two. If BNB goes belly-up (which it probably now won't), BNBG holders will join the creditors list. The question of course is whether BNBG holders will get more than $4.50 per note and our research suggests that they probably will. If BNBG holders get anywhere less than $100 per note, then by definition, BNB share holders will get zero.

We also know that whilst interest on the BNBG notes for the coming half is almost certainly deferred (and will accrue interest-on-interest), BNBG holders will be paid their interest before dividends are paid to BNB holders.

So, it's our view that the trade-off being in an illiquid security with a cap on returns is offset by the seniority over BNB holders and the potential payout if something goes wrong. It's still a risky investment, which is why we don't have a huge number of them.

Remember too that if BNB gets a takeover offer short term, it's going to be a low-ball one taking advantage of the distressed sellers. At (say) $1, $2 or $3, you might get a 3, 6 or 9 bagger from holding BNB. You'll get a 20-25 bagger from holding BNBG... we like this part too.