could it be worth 170 a share, page-2

Firstly I must say after doing research on this one last night and this am, in the last SECONDS I pulled my bid to buy the OAs on open 'cause it seemed to me to be getting too much hype. So I'm feeling somewhat negative on this stock ATM.

Dazza,

AMU states 59mt @ 2.04% Cu equivalent. INFERRED.
They further state this could go to 100mts @ 2% Cu. Equivalent, so the Co and Au credits have already been added.

NEXT. (rounding). 100mts @ 2% = 2m tonnes of Cu. At US$7,000 a tonne = US$14b or AUD 17b. That is the insitu value.

Now before you get this AMU must first prove up some of these figures. Then they have to do various studies, metallurgy, feasabilities etc etc. Tens of millions of here.

Then if everything is still works out the have to build infrastructure and a mining plant before they can earn a dollar. Hundreds of $M here.

To get this cash they have dilute.

WAYS.
Get a rich partner.
Borrow lots of money.
Issue lots of shares
Various mixtures of above.

Now all this will probably take at LEAST 5 years, closer to 10 IF they have'nt been bought out beforehand.

Takeovers usually happen closer to completion of mining, so that the takeoverer (sic) doesn't have all the head aches involved in starting a new mine.
Having said that someone in close proximity may wish to T/O early so it can get a wriggle on.

In the meantime the SP will rise and fall as the bigger players manipulate. Eventually if everything goes as planned and the price of metals stay at this level, with necessary dilution the SP could get to $25, or something like that.

So from the insitu value more drilling and all mining and refining costs need to be subtacted to get the net value.

Then if you wish to get more precise a discount rate needs to be added.

NPV. Take your stab. Remember at this stage it's still very speculative.