MDR 2.08% 49.0¢ medadvisor limited

Could MDR be a multi-bagger in the next 12 months?

  1. 38 Posts.
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    I thought this stock deserves a new thread for some constructive discussion. Hopefully, the title of the thread helps to keep the conversation directed at assessing the future value of the company and encourage some excitement.

    I'm personally calling this stock my next multi-bagger. Here's a quick summary of my thesis:

    • Strong foundation: Great product that has established a dominant market position in Australia, great reviews from both end-customers and partners (pharmacies, pharmaceuticals, doctors), and good growth to date.
    • Adheris acquisition is the inflection point: Although already a market leader in its niche segment within Australia, I would say MDR has only just completed what I would call an incubation phase, developing a solid product in a relatively tiny market. The Adheris acquisition takes the company onto the next phase of commercial growth, fast-tracking the company's plans for a global expansion. The company has flagged in the past that its strategy is to eventually replicate its domestic success in larger overseas markets. The Adheris acquisition already makes MDR the leader in direct-to-patient medication adherence programs in the US.
    • This is not reflected in the current share price: Due to the observable lack of interest in the stock, the company's share price has barely moved on the news of the acquisition. But if you are an intelligent investor, you would understand that 'boring' is good when it comes to picking up long-term winners. To me, it's a good sign that MDR's management doesn't spend a lot of time trying to promote the company. Doing some quick maths, it is quite obvious the company is severely undervalued. Prior to the acquisition, MDR was trading at around ~15x Price/Revenue (roughly $10m revenue on $100m MC). Post the acquisition, including the CR, MDR will trade at ~3x Price/Revenue if price holds around $0.40 even assuming zero growth (Adheris pro-forma US$27m revenue; CR takes MC to $160m). That is far too cheap.
    • Immediately undervalued with still more upsides: Despite the undervaluation based on ground zero assumptions, there are a lot of short to medium-term catalysts that could deliver significant growth. I will list some below:
    1. Acquisition synergy: Adheris provides MDR with an excellent network reach (~57% US Retail Rx and 60% of all active US prescribers). Despite its strong market presence, Adheris has experienced impeded growth in recent years, for one due to a lack of investment from its parent company (Syneos Health - NASDAQ: SYNH), but more importantly due to a lack of digital program-delivery channel (clearly a cause to slow down a business at this day and age). This is MDR's forte. MDR now has the opportunity to leverage Adheris' vast customer/network base to push out its core SaaS offering.
    2. Synergy with an existing partnership: Adheris acquisition is highly complementary with MDR's existing partnership with HMS. HMS with a vested interest in MDR can bring large volumes of payer-sponsored programs to MDR, which now has a seamless outlet to the large Adheris/MDR channels.
    3. Low float: As per the recent Annual Report, the top 20% of shareholders hold 73% of the company. With the CR and the growth in market cap, the expanded register could really help to elevate the share price, particularly if it can be accompanied by some increase in interest from retail investors.
    4. Growth: This should typically be a moot point, but because MDR's stock price is so undervalued, it should be noted that any verification of the company's accelerated growth trajectory should excite the market. This could come in the form of an update that hints at signs of MDR making genuine strides at establishing its market presence in the US, news of new partnerships/acquisitions in other geographies, confirmation of post-acquisition synergies such as SaaS/digital channel penetration into Adheris customer/network base. I won't be able to make an informed guess at the exact timing until the consolidated financials are available, but cashflow breakeven and rapid increase in profitability thereafter shouldn't be very far off if any of these growth scenarios begin to eventuate.

    I started this post with the intent to keep it short, but I've gone a little overboard. I would be really interested to hear other people's thoughts on MDR's prospects.
 
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49.0¢
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