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thank you ITW and peaks for sharing your findings.While the new...

  1. 310 Posts.
    thank you ITW and peaks for sharing your findings.

    While the new drug Zytiga has started posing threat to Dendreon's sales, we need to keep in mind that both of them are targeting prostate cancer and our CVac targets ovarian cancer, that's the company flag ship product at this stage and also upon which its future revenue forecast was calculated, accordingly investor expectation; if however proven to be working for other MUC-1 over-expressing tumors as well, Cvac would become a mega drug and we would call Dendreon little baby, not brother. But we all know there would be many regulatory process to go through before it getting onto the shelve, so at this stage, better not to count on it on your risk-reward calculation.

    So make it clear that PROVENGE and Cvac uses similar while still slightly different technology (that's the whole reason they are being linked); And their target market is totally different. If Provenge's sales was affected by its competitor (in this case Zytiga)in the prostate cancer treatment market, it should not have any negative impact on Cvac's sales.

    On the other hand, I still sees that clearly the marketing and sales dept in J&J is working much better than that in Dendreon, the poor judgement and execution in Dendreon sales dept should have accounted for the majority of its recent SP fall. Massively expanding the facility and employee numbers while not ensuring a smooth payment collecting process which is btw critical still got me puzzled, how could they get it so poor! Hopefully their upcoming conference in Nov would give a better picture to the market.

    And again, after revisiting the recent ann/reports from our Prima, 'targeting only 10% of the ovarion cancer maintenance type treatment market (which is currently unmet medical area) 'still sounds prudent to me. And securing a manufacture agreement with Progen Pharmaceuticals also paves the way for efficient production and future sales (lesson learnt from Dendreon, yep thank you, you made the mistake we learned the lesson);

    Finally, once again prudent forecasting is one of the approaches I appreciate with our Prima management.

    Good luck to all.
 
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