brisvegasI'll pass on that bet - while the DOW is now heading...

brisvegas

I'll pass on that bet - while the DOW is now heading back in that direction, it might take till next year to hit 11,000 - as with all bull markets, the beginnings are a slow steady slope.

its quite possible with the bull market we are returning to, we'll see maybe a rise of 2000 this year, maybe the same next yr, perhaps a little more the following yr followed by a massive bull the following yr (might rise 5000 points in a calendar yr)

so no, I'd not take a bet that the DOW will hit 11000 this year, but I would bet that it will hit 9000 and 10000.

I'm basing my opinion that we are now in a bull market on the following points

1. the bear started in October 2007 - bear markets normally go for not much more than 12 months.

2. there's been a change of president in the USA and while I would normally discount that totally, I believe on this occasion it will make a difference - Obama is aggresive and wants to be a great president, he's got the drive and motivation to make real changes (whether he does them well, time will tell)

3. there's just been the biggest injection of cash into the world financial system that the history of money has ever seen (at one time) - an injection of cash of that proportion only has one aim in mind and can only acheive one thing (and several consequential things) - economic growth is the primary purpose.

4. most world equity markets have come down roughly 50% and that is also the amount that a crash normally falls. If you check all of the bear markets in history, not many of them fall more than 50%. The DOW has gone from 14000 to 7500 in twelve months, close enough to 50% so I'd say we're well and truly done.

One can debate all day which trading day marked (or will mark) the beginning of the next bull market, but it doesn't matter much - what really matters in trading and indeed investing, is recognising the trends. I believe the next 4 weeks will confirm if the DOW has changed trends, if it can keep above 8000 and break through 9000 - bull market on!!

I'm off to watch the cricket.