KCN maintain that it's a case of "WHEN, not if" the North...

KCN maintain that it's a case of "WHEN, not if" the North Chatree leases are granted. If that is correct and gold production does reach 300,000 oz / p.a., and if the POG remains above US$900 / oz, that would leave KCN with net profit of around A$520 / oz or a massive $150,000,000 per year. Given the current market cap of A$372m and assuming a modest P.E. of around 8, it seems reasonable to assume that KCN's market cap could treble in value to around A$1.2b once the expansion is complete in 2009.

Anyone else out there who has run the ruler over this one? I've been dipping in and out in recent months but despite concerns as the mineable ore stockpile dwindles and the leases still aren't confirmed, I jumped in again this morning, given the 9% drop in price, since the upside upon confirmation of the leases could be sudden and quite dramatic.

Also, given the Thai government's excellent relationship with the company on employment, environmental and social responsibility matters (as KCN's recent awards indicate), I am hopeful that the leases will come through before the mine runs short of ore in a few months time.

KCN has excellent cash reserves for the expansion and is only in its current depressed state because of the uncertainty brought about by the long delay in gaining approval.

Any other views out there on the risk / reward ratio?

TIA. Caveat emptor.

Gupper