"I'm not so sure the additional 10%. Each future mine development is a separate investment case/decision for Malawi Govt (new company state owned) to assess on merit if they would have any interest in acquiring any additional 10% stake."
Malawi will get the extra 10% IMO, probably more so on all 5 LSMs.
Using my example in December compared to the current MCs of the LSMs, there is a difference of at least USD 50 million compared to the highs of the last few months, at which Malawi would currently receive the 10% lower and lower, despite all the efforts made by the LSMs to date.
It is certainly no coincidence that despite this significant progress made by all LSMs whose SP has dropped by at least 50% in the past year and at GBE for longer.
The calculation and the connection is as simple as it is striking:
The higher the SP of the LSMs, the more expensive Malawi's participation in them becomes.
And with approved and issued MDAs probably even more expensive again.
So, it is better not to have an MDA until the SP of the LSMs is at a level, that is significantly cheaper for Malawi's entry, which has now been impressively achieved, which is then presumably simultaneously with the respective MDA, for example in cash and/or as an SP option program, should take place before the expected SP increase begins.
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