Countdown to Auction

As of today (13 October) we have 11 days of ASX trading to the commencement of the auction on 27 October.

I've prepared the timeline below to provide a picture of how events are programmed and anticipated to unfold.

At close of trade on 12 October we had MUS at $0.15 and MUSOA at $0.12. Share price estimates for 27 October and the end of the year are being tracked in this thread.

Mustang are in the process of finalising mining/processing and then relocating remaining inventory to conduct rough Ruby grading and Parcelling and the auction facility in Port Louis, Mauritius.

The auction window will occur over 27 October to 30 October.

• Friday 27 October - ASX will close at 4pm AEDT and inventory viewing will commence simultaneously in Port Louis, Mauritius at 9am MST
• Saturday 28 October - Inventory viewing continues from 9am MST to 5pm MST
• Sunday 29 October - Inventory viewing continues from 9am MST to 5pm MST
• Monday 30 October - ASX will close at 4pm AEDT and 1 hr later at 10am MST tender bids will close. Mustang will review the submitted closed bids in order to identify winning bidders for each parcel and add results to a tally.
• Tuesday 31 October - Mustang are anticipated to announce the results to the ASX. Specific date / timing of the announcement could vary if there are delays in the auction programme.

If you're new to Mustang, then to get up to speed quickly:

• Go long on Mustang (includes links to much of the key information)
• Latest inventory announcement from 10 October (includes announcement of mining concession)
• Latest Research Report from Baker & Young (released 12 October)
• For estimates of auction result ( read the entire thread to get the most up-to-date estimates )

Near-term and Medium-term Rerating of Share Price

• 27-30 October 2017 - maiden rough ruby auction in Port Louis, Mauritius
• Scale-up of the plant from 1 Mtpa to 2 Mtpa capacity
• CY 2018 - hold a minimum 2 rough ruby auctions
• CY 2019 - hold a minimum 3 rough ruby auctions
• Establish a minimum 10-year JORC to support a minimum 10 year life of mine
• Double the landholdings (through access to tenements held in related companies)
• Implication (i.e. not confirmed) of delivering dividends to shareholders (see my hypothetical analysis here)
• We also have a Maiden JORC being prepared for the Graphite. This is due this quarter but now expected before the Ruby auction is completed.

Model-based Estimate of Inventory Value

Based on updated inventory expectation of 400,000 carats I've also lifted my inventory estimate to USD $124/ct. This is based on a fairly conservative set of assumptions on cutting yield, quality distribution, size distribution and reserve prices. Whilst IMO this is conservative I do expect that a result USD $150/ct is realistically achievable if there are a reasonable number of large stones in inventory with good combinations of clarity and colour. DYOR.



( my most recent estimate based on a set of conservative assumptions was USD $122/ct as described in this post, but for a full description of the general method used read this post