Countdown to Auction, page-49

DYOR. Not advice.
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My last estimate was USD $124/ct on an assumed 400,000 carats. This was posted here.



From today's announcement, I've rerun the model with the additional 5,000 carats and compared to my last run of the model. The new run does not significantly alter my estimate of average US $/ct so hence the result remains at USD $124/ct.

More accurately, the last estimate with additional precision was US $124.06/ct (for 400,000 carats ) and at 405,000 carats this is lifted to US $124.33/ct.

Similarly total inventory value (assumed from the model) lifts from US $49.62M to US $50.35M.



The following are the core assumptions used for this estimate:

• 120,000 carats collected from the Alpha deposit up to June 2017
• 285,000 carats collected from the 8245L deposit from July 2017

This is based on a fairly conservative set of assumptions on cutting yield, quality distribution, size distribution and reserve prices. Whilst IMO this is conservative I do expect that a result USD $150/ct is realistically achievable if there are a reasonable number of large stones in inventory with good combinations of clarity and colour. DYOR.

I do wonder whether Mustang has optimised operations in anyway in the final weeks to boost recovery of high quality secondary deposit stones, either through plant operations or through the Artisanal Development Programme.

For a detailed explanation of my analysis method, see this post.