My personal thoughts (and frustrations):
1. the 8.8% helium in the water well doesn't guarantee a resource. Apart from providing some evidence that there's some helium there, no further data about how much is there or what's actually commercially can be proven - if only we could drill right? - So no, that doesn't warrant a reward
2. $15mil in the bank - while contingent on the permit application may have been a different story had there not been such a prolonged delay in getting the permit application done in the first place - initially before the rules changed and then spending how many months to actually lodging the modified permit - The time that was wasted saw thousands of $'s burned just to sustain administration costs and leases costs which necessitated the need raise more funds.
3. We've been told that the drill hole would cost circa $300K USD to do (correct me if I'm wrong). God knows what the other $14 mil plus is going to be used for because right now it can't be more drilling because we don't have any other permits pending. Yes, we can assume that some will be attributed to the water well drilling but that's not going to lead to commercialisation.
4. The rolling permit strategy - yes while our understanding is that the process to put together the application together may not take as long as Enterprise, we've all bared witness to how slow the permit process actually moves through the government system there. Each area is different and it's not a guarantee that there's not gonna be other hold-ups - god forbid that there's an objection to the application or permit then that's going to prolong the process even longer.
Based on their announcements regarding this - indicated timings would be shorter but from what we can see on the COGCC website, doesn't support this. Looking at the announcement on the 28th April 2021 after the initial application was submitted, they said:
"Following submission of this initial permit application, Blue Star is now equipped to undertake a rolling well-permitting strategy. Preparatory activities for further applications have been underway for some time. This work is expected to see the submission of initial applications for a further two wells during Q2 2021" - When you're late by 6 months - that's not a delay - that's a red flag on management's ability to keep honour their shareholders.
5. I don't believe any offtakes or talks would have been had that would be contingent on a permit approval when you don't know if you even have a salable resource, it's a futile exercise based on what if's that is a waste of time on both sides.
6. Based on my understanding of the permit - Enterprise #1 is a single drill - What's next? Is BNL that lucky that they've staked the exact position above a massive helium reserve? Maybe - But with the amount of acreage they've acquired one would think more than one drill would be necessary which far as we know, they can't do without the permits.
7. 7.5 months is a long time between permits - Based on the September 21 quarterly the cash burn was $1.165 mil. $15 mil isn't going to last long before another raise is needed if we do a drill every 7.5 months.
Now I've been a supporter of BNL for a long while now and have been damn patient like some of my fellow LT holders here, BUT I personally think that management have in recent months let their eyes off the ball and need to get their head back in the game again before we see another quarter pass with money burned and nothing to show for it.
Happy to be wrong about any of these to alleviate my frustrations
Anyway, I'm done venting now - Happy Friday for everyone tomorrow - 9 more days till Christmas!
(20min delay)