counter bid

Reflecting on the past week since the Tullow takeover ann it must be said that HDR has had exceptional buying pressure. Over 240 million changed hands which is unsustainable especially for 10 weeks.
Who has been buying ? Thanks to the disgraceful restrictions imposed by the ASX no one knows. So much for so called openness - the restriction should be illegal.
Maybe churning activity - maybe not. If the buying by whoever was for a specific strategic reason and reaches a point where their percentage holding satisfies their needs then the buying will drop off and the SP will fall.

Obviously a very "special" relationship has been developed between HDR and Tullow with their 3 drill successes onshore Lake Albert in order to give birth to such a sellout agreement of our company . (Unlikely such a cosy relationship HDL/WPL !) Besides the agreed price the clause to specifically prevent critical information to other competitors necessary to prepare a counter offer is truly against the interests of HDR shareholders and Potter should be sacked for that.

The many holding out for a counter bid may be disappointed. The big question is will it eventuate?
If so from where might the bid come ?
It seems to me there are two categories : The Needy and the Greedy.
THE NEEDY: These are investor countries with a need for long term reliable supplies of oil and gas. Countries like Japan, China, India and perhaps Europe.
This category likes certainty and avoids excessive risk
Not for them huge financial gambles - especially with an absence of necessary information.
For this reason I dont expect a bid from this sector.
THE GREEDY: (with tongue in cheek) These are the oil industry majors which are used to huge gambles which sometimes dont come off. These guys are the Exons, BP's, Shell, BG, GDF etc etc.
HDR's main assets are Uganda, Mauritania, Guyanne and the Falklands.
If I had to pin the tail on the donkey I would go for Shell. Why ?
- Shell, with its tie to Woodside, would be well aware of the potential (and problems) of the waters offshore Mauritania.
- Shell is also knowledgable of offshore East coast South America, Venezuala etc and has probably been studying the Guyanne seismics in the HDR Data room.(It may even explain the Guyanne delays ???)
- Shell was the first to find oil around the Falklands and only walked away when the oil prices collapsed. Even if they couldn't get the recent seismics from HDR then Falklands Oil and Gas Ltd (FOGL) the major partner would welcome Shell and would likely show them
the data.
- Shell has a need and a strong desire to significantly add to their reserves and is seeking such opportunities.

All crystal ball gazing of course but I will play my Tens and Jacks to say there will be another bid so I will hold on pro tem.
Just an old fellow's musings - not much I know compared to some of you on HC. Westmoon