course of action in case of announcement, page-4

Hi kashmirz,
I guess that we all have or had similar thoughts regarding possible trading action for the next ann.

You state that you expect more material information in the next update, causing the price to appreciate to a higher level compared to last ann.
To offload all shares at such a time runs several risks.

1,
If material information towards a deal with GSK is given, I doubt that rally will be confined to one day.
I would expect shareprice to rally in steps over a whole week, market would in spikes realise the dimsensions of the ann and each time swapping resistence with support in a frequent manner.
Peak could be 4/ 5 days after ann and retreat then to a new base level according to ann content.

2,
In close connection to the previous point, you might get caught having sold at 4 cents whilst price rallies a day later to 6cents etc.
It would be impossible to buy back in at lower levels.


3,
You expect the market to react identically to the new ann as it did to the last, with the exception of a higher peak.
The expected material information, as we are nearing this point with several partners, is the most likely outcome.
A similar market reaction to the new ann would then be extremely unlikely. Hence your predicted market reaction probably false.

4,
The biotech game is unpredictable.
For the reason of material outcomes looming from several angles and partners, I would not be game to risk selling some mils for trading purposes.
Due to where we are with our evaluations and partner developments I stopped trading OBJ altogether, apart from active accumulation on my part.
I agree with your approach a year ago, but I personally find this too risky now.
Projecting past trading pattern onto future market reactions when material content in upcoming anns is likely is a futile excercise as the new ann would be a game changer.


5,
There could well be a row of anns within a short term period, see last year around this time which saw 4 major anns within 8 weeks.
Riding your trades successfully between unpredictable multiple announcements might prove extremely difficult.


To sum my answer up,
In the event that your market reaction prediction turns out to be correct, you might make a few thousand by buying back in when price would retreat.
On the other hand, you could miss out on 10 or 100 thousands by ending up being caught without any shares after your trade while you wait for price to come down.
The risk ratio does not work for me.

Either way, good luck on your trades !