Thanks for picking that up. I was confused by the structure of the Edison assumptions and didn't double-check.
These are the correct assumptions.
Congestive Heart Failure
- US only
- Market penetration as per Edison estimates ( total addressable market 7,260 ). They used 5% 1% market penetration against a patient population 726,000
- Price USD $50,000
DYOR. Not advice.
Analysis is highly speculative. No specific advice or buy or sell recommendation is intended.
Combined Estimate of Potential Value for Non-COVID ARDS, CHF, CLBP & aGVH
Scenarios ranging from 20% share of revenue to 80% share of revenue. Consensus seems to be that partnering approaches are more probable than a direct to market approach.
The company recently raised AUD $138M (USD $90M) to support scale up of manufacturing plus has access to a loan facility ( USD $80M currently drawn against a USD $115M facility ).
Crohn’s disease excluded as it is difficult to determine addressable market.
![]()
Potential Value
Intent of estimates is to provide perspective of potential value.
Risked @ AUD$25 to $83 $21 to $64 (50% risk weight used for all parts)
Unrisked @ AUD$50 to $165 $42 to $128
Note - No allowance for additional dilution. Estimates assume success of treatment for COVID ARDS leads to revenues sufficient to allow Mesoblast to avoid further-diluting shareholders in commercialising for aGVHD, CLBP and CHF pathways.
Estimates imply to me that on a strong outcome from the COVID ARDS trial the share price fair value should sit at AUD $20+ until details of partnering strategy emerge for Non-COVID ARDS. After COVID assumption is that Mesoblast would then move onto treating Non-COVID ARDS through label extension, based on data collected from the COVID ARDS trial.
A 20% revenue share from Non-COVID ARDS may result in NPAT of ~ AUD $550M . At industry average P/E of 22.48 this would equate to a share price of $20. 80% revenue share would be worth AUD $61 due to lower gross-margin.
![]()
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- MSB
- COVID-19 ARDS and ARDS Share Price Scenarios
COVID-19 ARDS and ARDS Share Price Scenarios, page-234
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 285 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add MSB (ASX) to my watchlist
|
|||||
Last
$1.13 |
Change
-0.025(2.17%) |
Mkt cap ! $1.284B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$1.15 | $1.16 | $1.11 | $7.363M | 6.488M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
5 | 94863 | $1.13 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$1.13 | 5000 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
4 | 85863 | 1.125 |
3 | 60500 | 1.120 |
3 | 49858 | 1.115 |
10 | 234700 | 1.110 |
3 | 20500 | 1.105 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
1.130 | 1000 | 1 |
1.135 | 15000 | 2 |
1.140 | 10000 | 1 |
1.150 | 27892 | 3 |
1.155 | 25000 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 26/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
MSB (ASX) Chart |