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pintohoo

81,439 Posts.

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20/03/20

02:53

Post #: 43595653
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Originally posted by DickyBeach ↑

The most recent statistics fromthe W.H.O. can be found hereand are as 10pm Geneva time 18th March (8pm Friday 18thSydney time) and show 191,127 infections.
Worldometersalso provide stats but on a real-time basis which at the moment are as at 3pmLondon time 19th March (2am Sydney) and showing 228,708 infections.
Over the last few weeks the differences due to different Reporting Times hasbeen acceptable so I’ll now use Worldometers’ latest stats namely:
· 228,708 Infections
· 86,254 Recovered,
· 6,942 Critical, and
· 9,377 Deaths

The remainder are as yet unresolved.

We are being exhorted toself-isolate for 14 days if we are diagnosed with the illness so it seemsto me that the current Recovered, Critical, and Deaths should relate toInfections from “14 days ago”. Think about it.

14 days ago Worldometers reported93,158 Infections (the WHO 93,090).

If my logic is correct then thispresents a very different picture and maybe that is why National Governmentsare taking desperate measures.
Using 93,000 Infections:
· Recoveries would be 92.7% and therefore
· Deaths 7.3%, not 4%
Is my reasoning logical or have I screwed up somewhere?

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I think you have screwed up. - not certain, but, I think so

you shouldn’t count the infected numbers from earlier with the current deaths

Although the incubation is 14 days - people will not be presenting on day one of symptoms

more so - they cannot possibly be counted as infections until tested And results returned and counted - that’s where I suspect your figures are out

Think it through - my brain isn’t working perfectly atm as I am a little tired
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