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There is a worthy comparison in both. People were fearful. There...

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Gingerlily

62 Posts.

34

03/05/20

12:15

Post #: 44404661
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Originally posted by Parsifal: ↑

assume you are referring to the 2009 swine flu pandemic

“was caused by a new strain of H1N1 that originated in Mexico in the spring of 2009 before spreading to the rest of the world.

In one year, the virus infected as many as 1.4 billion people across the globe and killed between 151,700 and 575,400 people, according to the CDC.”

I had checked up on a few pandemics to see which ones I lived through. Just in case you thought I might have survived the 1918 version. I thought it a good chance you weren’t thinking of aids which is the only other more recent pandemic and probably hadn’t seen me surviving the historic plagues and also the ravages of time

I’m not sure the comparison with swine flu is quite the same though. For a start the class of virus, death rates, the transmission rate (ro), the incubation period and asymptomatic carriers, the group affected, testing, availability of appropriate antivirals, speed of response and so on all impact severity

The other factor is capacity to respond. If you think about it all the evidence so far suggests that while swine flu was relatively easily spread it was not as severe. It’s transmission rate was lower as well. So those two factors alone meant the hospitals were better able to cope with the numbers whose condition required hospitalisation

maybe the most interesting is the group most affected by these two viruses. Swine flu hit under 65’s more than an older age group. The hypothesis is that those over 65 had built up an immunity to that class of virus. But maybe also death rate was lower in part because younger people then had better immune system fight responses. Who knows - but there is enough variation between the two situations to suggest your comparison isn’t useful

btw I don’t think that a debate about the unknowable is worth it. It is very easy to say that the quarantine is pointless, unnecessary, excessive, costly or whatever. But if most countries have quarantined or restricted movement we are judging the outcomes from that perspective. It’s too early to see what the consequences are for those countries such as Sweden.

I for one think that it is complex and difficult and easy to sit at home and have an opinion. Another entirely to make decisions with the spotlight on us. One way or the other those leaders are being judged as they make these decisions and history too will judge them

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There is a worthy comparison in both. People were fearful. There was no medication or vaccinations for ages. But, in neither case, did the world shut down.

We could shut down highways, because we know people die in auto accidents.....but we don't. We try to modify behavior instead.

We can't hide, just because we live in a dangerous world. We live as well as we can.

I am not doubting the pandemic. I am doubting the response......which was originally based on faulty modelling from the CDC.....which has been proven to be wrong....and yet, we're still in lockdown.

Why did Trump given in to the cries to shut down the US. He got scared not because the Democrats were screaming and repeating media frenzy. He got scared because his prized joy and claim to fame - the US stock market - was crashing.
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