Honestly based on what I read here, I suspect you're wrong wrt people watched it. I think its more that the few that did heard 'not today' and moved. Momentum got created and became self perpetuating. Stylistic issues you spoke about come into play (understatement too)
By volume of trade vs volume of ownership, it appears to me this stock is driven at the margin by ST mindsets. As I've said before, key holders are static and are theoretically looking for something north of $1 for an IPO to present hold with 10% hurdle rate.
MM says in that webinar they are looking to derisk for BP. GILD in market saying (generically, but at same time they have been talking to BIT that they have an appetite for mid 1s bn)..... I used to research a big Aussie oil company with a family office adviser in his 60s. Always remember he said to me that he got advance warning of the GFC with a tiny article in regard to a EM default on like pag 7 of the paper. Point is that whilst there's obviously no written guarantee here, all the concern you've had re delay etc has past, we're att he point of a deal. MM has explicitly aid any day, and what they have to do to effect a deal.
No CR, a stated timeline as to when they will need it, a dismissive approach to questions of concern, preference to use options, value proposition ie current plus future benefit able to be derived from tech, a little conditioning of SH,...
As I said before, to me all that doesn't mean there discussing do they want it or not, just how much its worth, and how much of it they have to sell, and to whom.
Gritstone was around $1bn + development and share, I suspect that's the baseline for licence HIV alone. I think there's more in this value wise, just need to showcase a little both to market and technically to BP, COVID will assist....
Not sure many people buying and selling this for .03c margin are across much of the above. Its kind of irrelevant though isn't it? As Thaliat said the other day, if the market gets a sense of delivery, this will fly and why wouldn't it? It becomes arbitrage. Its up what 15% odd off the bottom since drop. market will take heed of her words soon enough, something to the effect of any day, no notice wasn't it? what will be the catalyst ? COVID results? Background analysis ? Competitive forces between BP?
DYOR
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