We analyse the relation between covid-19 vaccinations and all-cause-mortality in N=340 Dutch municipalities (17.3M people, ~99% of population), during the entire pandemic period. We do not use covid-19-attributed mortality, mortality predictions and excess mortality, thereby bypassing the ambiguities of case-identification and mortality-modeling. Municipal demographics such as age, culture and population density are strong confounders of mortality and vaccine-uptake. We account for these by normalizing results to prepandemic year 2019, where covid was absent but demographics were highly representative for later years. Normalized to 2019, we found no correlation between municipal mortality in 2020 with vaccination uptake in 2021, which shows the effectiveness of our confounder accounting.
We could not observe a mortality-reducing effect of vaccination in Dutch municipalities after vaccination and booster campaigns. We did find a 4-sigma-significant mortality-enhancing effect during the two periods of high unexplained excess mortality.Our results add to other recent findings of zero mRna-vaccine effectiveness on all-cause mortality, calling for more research on this topic.https://www.researchgate.net/publication/361818561_Covid-19_vaccinations_and_all-cause_mortality_-a_long-term_differential_analysis_among_municipalities
