For those who may be interested: The ABS has published an...

For those who may be interested:

The ABS has published an analysis of Provisional Mortality on the 25/11/2022:

Provisional Mortality Statistics, Jan - Aug 2022 | Australian Bureau of Statistics (abs.gov.au)

Key statistics

• In 2022, there were 128,797 deaths that occurred by 31 August and were registered by 31 October, which is 18,671 (17.0%) more than the historical average.
• In August there were 17,419 deaths, 1,926 (12.4%) above the historical average.

This analysis appears to indicate that there is excess mortality over what some base they calculate.

The base they use are:

"Throughout this report, counts of deaths are compared to an average number of deaths for previous years.

In this report, data for 2021 is compared to an average number of deaths recorded over the 5 years from 2015-2019 as was the case in previous publications.

Data for 2022 is compared to a baseline comprising the years 2017-2019 and 2021. 2020 is not included in the baseline for 2022 data because it included periods where numbers of deaths were significantly lower than expected. "

There is a large problem with the use of these particular bases as they make no allowance for !. Population Increases, and 2. Aging population.

I have used their data to recalculate the supposed excess mortality and compared it with an ABS age group population base calculated along the same method with Covid deaths adjusted out.

The results are as follows:

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5	Column 6	Column 7	Column 8	Column 9	Column 10	Column 11	Column 12	Column 13
0	Analysis of Excess Deaths in Australia using ABS Provisional Mortality Statistics released 25/11/2022
1	Assumption: 2022 population = 2021 Population + 2021 change over 2020 (ie: 2022 pop = 2021 Pop + (2021pop - 2020 pop)
2		Persons, 0-44	Persons, 45-64	Persons, 65-74	Persons, 75-84	Persons, 85 and over	Total
3		Deaths	Population	Deaths	Population	Deaths	Population	Deaths	Population	Deaths	Population	Deaths	Population
4	2015	8,072	14,412,137	21,092	5,849,554	24,199	2,006,690	40,550	1,078,669	63,531	468,945	157,444	23,815,995
5	2016	8,064	14,584,444	21,001	5,934,212	24,935	2,083,269	40,786	1,106,303	64,439	482,679	159,225	24,190,907
6	2017	8,177	14,778,432	21,270	6,028,110	26,195	2,152,609	41,894	1,144,470	66,815	490,581	164,351	24,594,202
7	2018	7,745	14,959,115	21,253	6,100,603	25,673	2,226,991	40,573	1,181,614	64,225	498,320	159,469	24,966,643
8	2019	8,023	15,137,277	21,481	6,171,573	26,330	2,291,492	42,242	1,232,723	66,730	507,152	164,806	25,340,217
9	2020	7,780	15,212,707	21,138	6,257,271	26,379	2,373,146	42,259	1,293,521	65,081	518,644	162,637	25,655,289
10	2021	7,727	15,097,179	21,284	6,277,121	27,595	2,426,916	45,305	1,352,603	70,035	534,260	171,946	25,688,079
11	2022	5,228	14,981,651	15,215	6,296,971	19,812	2,480,686	34,694	1,411,685	53,846	549,876	128,795	25,720,869
12
13
14	Baseline for 2021	8,016	14,774,281	21,219	6,016,810	25,466	2,152,210	41,209	1,148,756	65,148	489,535	161,059	24,581,593
15	Excess compared to Ave	-289	322,898	65	260,311	2,129	274,706	4,096	203,847	4,887	44,725	10,887	1,106,486
16	Less Covid-19 Deaths			258		242		339		386		1,225
17	Excess excluding Covid-19	-289	322,898	-193	260,311	1,886	274,706	3,757	203,847	4,501	44,725	9,662	1,106,486
18	Excess exCovid/Baseline %	-3.6%	2.2%	-0.9%	4.3%	7.4%	12.8%	9.1%	17.7%	6.9%	9.1%	6.0%	4.5%
19
20	Baseline for 2022 Year to Aug	5,242	14,993,001	14,164	6,144,352	17,610	2,274,502	28,376	1,227,853	44,732	507,578	110,124	25,147,285
21	Excess compared to Ave	-14	-11,350	1,052	152,619	2,202	206,184	6,318	183,833	9,114	42,298	18,672	573,584
22	Less Covid-19 Deaths			535		987		2,199		4,007		7,728
23	Excess excluding Covid-19	-14	-11,350	517	152,619	1,214	206,184	4,120	183,833	5,107	42,298	10,944	573,584
24	Excess exCovid/Baseline %	-0.3%	-0.1%	3.6%	2.5%	6.9%	9.1%	14.5%	15.0%	11.4%	8.3%	9.9%	2.3%

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3
0		Total
1		Deaths	Population
2	2015	157,444	23,815,995
3	2016	159,225	24,190,907
4	2017	164,351	24,594,202
5	2018	159,469	24,966,643
6	2019	164,806	25,340,217
7	2020	162,637	25,655,289
8	2021	171,946	25,688,079
9	2022	128,795	25,720,869
10
11
12	Baseline for 2021	161,059	24,581,593
13	Excess compared to Ave	10,887	1,106,486
14	Less Covid-19 Deaths	1,225
15	Excess excluding Covid-19	9,662	1,106,486
16	Excess exCovid/Baseline %	6.0%	4.5%
17
18	Baseline for 2022 Year to Aug	110,124	25,147,285
19	Excess compared to Ave	18,672	573,584
20	Less Covid-19 Deaths	7,728
21	Excess excluding Covid-19	10,944	573,584
22	Excess exCovid/Baseline %	9.9%	2.3%

FYI

Regards

SP