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SilentPartnr

2,163 Posts.

197

08/12/22

14:13

Post #: 65220988

Originally posted by SilentPartnr ↑

For those who may be interested:

The ABS has published an analysis of Provisional Mortality on the 25/11/2022:

Provisional Mortality Statistics, Jan - Aug 2022 | Australian Bureau of Statistics (abs.gov.au)

Key statistics

In 2022, there were 128,797 deaths that occurred by 31 August and were registered by 31 October, which is 18,671 (17.0%) more than the historical average.

In August there were 17,419 deaths, 1,926 (12.4%) above the historical average.

This analysis appears to indicate that there is excess mortality over what some base they calculate.

The base they use are:

"Throughout this report, counts of deaths are compared to an average number of deaths for previous years.

In this report, data for 2021 is compared to an average number of deaths recorded over the 5 years from 2015-2019 as was the case in previous publications.

Data for 2022 is compared to a baseline comprising the years 2017-2019 and 2021. 2020 is not included in the baseline for 2022 data because it included periods where numbers of deaths were significantly lower than expected. "

There is a large problem with the use of these particular bases as they make no allowance for !. Population Increases, and 2. Aging population.

I have used their data to recalculate the supposed excess mortality and compared it with an ABS age group population base calculated along the same method with Covid deaths adjusted out.

The results are as follows:

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 Column 8 Column 9 Column 10 Column 11 Column 12 Column 13

1 Analysis of Excess Deaths in Australia using ABS Provisional Mortality Statistics released 25/11/2022

2 Assumption: 2022 population = 2021 Population + 2021 change over 2020 (ie: 2022 pop = 2021 Pop + (2021pop - 2020 pop)

3 Persons, 0-44 Persons, 45-64 Persons, 65-74 Persons, 75-84 Persons, 85 and over Total

4 Deaths Population Deaths Population Deaths Population Deaths Population Deaths Population Deaths Population

5 2015 8,072 14,412,137 21,092 5,849,554 24,199 2,006,690 40,550 1,078,669 63,531 468,945 157,444 23,815,995

6 2016 8,064 14,584,444 21,001 5,934,212 24,935 2,083,269 40,786 1,106,303 64,439 482,679 159,225 24,190,907

7 2017 8,177 14,778,432 21,270 6,028,110 26,195 2,152,609 41,894 1,144,470 66,815 490,581 164,351 24,594,202

8 2018 7,745 14,959,115 21,253 6,100,603 25,673 2,226,991 40,573 1,181,614 64,225 498,320 159,469 24,966,643

9 2019 8,023 15,137,277 21,481 6,171,573 26,330 2,291,492 42,242 1,232,723 66,730 507,152 164,806 25,340,217

10 2020 7,780 15,212,707 21,138 6,257,271 26,379 2,373,146 42,259 1,293,521 65,081 518,644 162,637 25,655,289

11 2021 7,727 15,097,179 21,284 6,277,121 27,595 2,426,916 45,305 1,352,603 70,035 534,260 171,946 25,688,079

12 2022 5,228 14,981,651 15,215 6,296,971 19,812 2,480,686 34,694 1,411,685 53,846 549,876 128,795 25,720,869

13

14

15 Baseline for 2021 8,016 14,774,281 21,219 6,016,810 25,466 2,152,210 41,209 1,148,756 65,148 489,535 161,059 24,581,593

16 Excess compared to Ave -289 322,898 65 260,311 2,129 274,706 4,096 203,847 4,887 44,725 10,887 1,106,486

17 Less Covid-19 Deaths 258 242 339 386 1,225

18 Excess excluding Covid-19 -289 322,898 -193 260,311 1,886 274,706 3,757 203,847 4,501 44,725 9,662 1,106,486

19 Excess exCovid/Baseline % -3.6% 2.2% -0.9% 4.3% 7.4% 12.8% 9.1% 17.7% 6.9% 9.1% 6.0% 4.5%

20

21 Baseline for 2022 Year to Aug 5,242 14,993,001 14,164 6,144,352 17,610 2,274,502 28,376 1,227,853 44,732 507,578 110,124 25,147,285

22 Excess compared to Ave -14 -11,350 1,052 152,619 2,202 206,184 6,318 183,833 9,114 42,298 18,672 573,584

23 Less Covid-19 Deaths 535 987 2,199 4,007 7,728

24 Excess excluding Covid-19 -14 -11,350 517 152,619 1,214 206,184 4,120 183,833 5,107 42,298 10,944 573,584

25 Excess exCovid/Baseline % -0.3% -0.1% 3.6% 2.5% 6.9% 9.1% 14.5% 15.0% 11.4% 8.3% 9.9% 2.3%

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3

1 Total

2 Deaths Population

3 2015 157,444 23,815,995

4 2016 159,225 24,190,907

5 2017 164,351 24,594,202

6 2018 159,469 24,966,643

7 2019 164,806 25,340,217

8 2020 162,637 25,655,289

9 2021 171,946 25,688,079

10 2022 128,795 25,720,869

11

12

13 Baseline for 2021 161,059 24,581,593

14 Excess compared to Ave 10,887 1,106,486

15 Less Covid-19 Deaths 1,225

16 Excess excluding Covid-19 9,662 1,106,486

17 Excess exCovid/Baseline % 6.0% 4.5%

18

19 Baseline for 2022 Year to Aug 110,124 25,147,285

20 Excess compared to Ave 18,672 573,584

21 Less Covid-19 Deaths 7,728

22 Excess excluding Covid-19 10,944 573,584

23 Excess exCovid/Baseline % 9.9% 2.3%

FYI

Regards

SP

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Sorry, my "snipping tool" seems not to want to paste to site!
Those headings are not aligning up right with the normal paste function!

Regards

SP

Last edited by SilentPartnr: 08/12/22

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