Some people have referred to the ABS analysis released on 22/12/2022: "In 2022, there were 144,650 deaths that occurred by 30 September and were registered by 30 November. This is 19,986 deaths (16.0%) more than the baseline average."
I have reanalyzed the ABS data, with no particular objective in mind. I have found the ABS analysis to be missleading. It compares 2022 mortality to a average base line of 4 years : " Data for 2022 is compared to a baseline comprising the years 2017-2019 and 2021."
This analysis is flawed as it makes no allowance for 1. Increased Population and 2. Aging Population.
The analysis should have been done on mortality rate per population within age groups ie Deaths per million rather than on absolute number of total deaths compared to the average of those particular 4 years.
Their analysis: Total deaths to 30 September 2022: 144,647
Average deaths for 9 months to 30 Sept in 2017,18,19,21 124,658
Gives Increase of 19,990 or 16%
About 8,008 of that increase are classified as Covid-19 Deaths, making it look like we have excess mortality of 9.6% in addition to Covid-19 Deaths.
The ABS analysis methodology is wrong. I am surprised that they have done this analysis without taking into account the higher population as well as the aging population with both factors expected to result in a higher number of deaths.
The following is the analysis based purely on numbers using the same 4 years as the ABS used for their baseline:
The most appropriate way to analysis excess mortality is to do a comparison of deaths per million for 2022 and compare that amount to the average deaths per million in the past years the ABS has used as a baseline comparison.
When you do this analysis, you get the following:
I have used ABS population statistics for years upto 2021. For 2022, I took the 2021 population and just adjusted it by the same amount it changed between 2020 and 2021. I think the risk here is that the population may be higher from immigration in 2022 that did not appear in 2021.
Anyway, I don't have time to pursue postings on here. So I will just put it out there for your information.
