Authored by Bill Rice via The Brownstone Institute,
For all I’ve written on my “early spread” hypothesis, I don’t think I’ve done enough to highlight the key argument/point of said theory.
Namely, if many millions of people had already been infected by the lockdown dates of mid-March 2020, someone would have noticed a spike in all-cause deaths…if this contagious virus was as “deadly” as the experts assured us it was.
In April and May 2020, we all saw photos of refrigerated trailers that reportedly had to be used as morgues as hospitals “reached capacity.”
Personally, I don’t believe huge numbers of people suddenly started dropping dead from Covid in April.
A simple thought exercise perhaps illustrates my point.
For sake of argument, let’s say 10 million Americans had actually contracted this virus by mid-February 2020. (Ten million previously-infected Americans would equal only 3 percent of the US population).
According to the official narrative, no Americans had died from Covid by mid-February.
I don’t think this “fact” is true so, for sake of argument, let’s say 2,000 Americans had already died from this virus. (These “Covid deaths” were simply “missed” or attributed to other causes.)
I pulled out my calculator and did some simple division…
Okay, let’s now do the math from this hypothetical scenario.
Two thousand “missed Covid deaths” divided by 10 million (real and “early”) Covid “cases” = an Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of 0.02 percent.
At one point, the experts said 1 to 4 percent of people who came down with Covid would eventually die from this disease. Today, that IFR number has been dramatically reduced to something like 0.3 to 0.5 percent – which is still 3 to 5 times higher than the infection fatality rate of influenza (said to be 0.1 percent).
So what is the real IFR or CFR of Covid? Is it 0.3 to 0.5 percent…or 0.02 percent?
I should mention some people believe the virus wasn’t as “deadly” or lethal in its early form. That is, the virus might have been infecting people in all 50 US states before February 2020, but it didn’t start killing these people until after mid-March 2020, which is when we saw the big spike in “Covid deaths.”
This spike most-notably exploded in New York City…in April 2020.
This would mean we had a contagious respiratory virus that actually inflicted its carnage in the spring and not the “cold and flu” months of November through February.
As I’ve written before, correctly interpreted, the official narrative is that we actually had “late spread” (or early spread that later became “deadly” spread).
My biggest contrarian belief…
My contrarian thought is that if millions of people had already been infected by mid-February 2020 or the lockdown dates and we know there was no spike in “all-cause” deaths, we can conclude with confidence that Covid was not causing a spike in deaths.
In other words, this was not a “deadly” virus and the world did not have a real “health emergency” that was causing large numbers of people to die.
Said differently, if this virus was causing 0.02 percent of the people who contracted it to die between the months of November 2019 and the end of February 2020, this mortality rate should have remained constant moving forward in time.
However, we know from “Covid death” statistics that there was a massive explosion of alleged Covid deaths after late March 2020. In fact, this high “Covid” death rate continued for years even after the rollout of the vaccines in December 2020.
Where I really stick my neck out with my early spread hypothesis is my conclusion that the real Covid death rate shouldn’t have changed.
In fact, Covid deaths should have gone downdue to lockdowns (to prevent “spread”), masking, social distancing, better treatment, earlier identification of “cases,” and a “vaccine” we were all-but-guaranteed would prevent Covid deaths in every vaccinated person.
I trust my readers can see where I’m going with this. If Covid wasn’t killing all these people after the lockdowns, this means these millions of people must have been dying from something that wasn’t directly caused by this virus.
Above I speculated that Covid might have killed 2,000 people out of every 10 million people who were infected before “official Covid” (an IFR of 0.02 percent). Expressed differently, this would mean Covid killed 1 out of every 5,000 people who contracted the virus.
If this virus kills 0.02 percent of the people who contract it,this means it doesn’t kill 99.98 percent of the people it infects.
Who was Covid killing?
But this percentage (0.02 percent) isn’t giving us the full picture on Covid mortality because it represents a hypothetical number of all deaths and cases in a country.
By now, we should all know who Covid really kills. It kills the very old and/or those with severe pre-existing medical conditions.
So of these hypothetical 2,000 “early and missed” Covid deaths, the vast majority (probably 85 percent) would have been among people over, say, the age of 75.
That is, if Covid is a “deadly virus,” it was pretty much only a deadly virus for people who had already lived the normal life expectancy. It certainly wasn’t a deadly virus for people under, say, the US median age of approximately 39.
Support for my 1-in-5,000 mortality number…
My “early-spread” guesstimate of 2,000 deaths for every 10 million infected people actually jibes with several recent stories I’ve written.
For example, I recently published a story where I noted I could find no conclusive or definitive evidence that convinced me even one college or pro current athlete has died from Covid…in four (!) years.
If we include high school athletes, America easily has more than 5 million athletes who play organized sports and probably 90 percent of these athletes have had Covid at least once by now.
Of this number, I’ve only found two or three stories of athletes who perhaps died from Covid (all stories involved high school athletes).
This would mean that among healthy athletes (male and female) ages 14 to 38, the IFR for Covid is actually not 0.02 percent, it’s 0.000 percent. One would have to go out to four decimal points to pick up any Covid deaths.
The naval ship antibody studies that were ignored…
I’m also the only journalist in the world who’s tried to bring attention to the three antibody studies that took place among sailors on three naval vessels that reportedly experienced major Covid outbreaks in March or early April 2020.
According to my research, more than 7,000 sailors served on the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier, the French aircraft carrier The Charles deGaulle and the destroyer the USS Kidd.
According to extrapolations from antibody tests done in April and May 2020, approximately 4,200 of these sailors had already been infected by this virus.
Of this number, only one sailor, 41, died from Covid…and I’m not 100 percent sure he actually died from Covid. Still, he might have been an authentic Covid victim.
If he was, that would mean the Infection Fatality Rate among sailors serving on these three ships (in the worst-possible spread environment) was approximately 1-in-4,200, which is not far from my 1-in-5,000 figure, but greater than my 0-in-5,000 number for athletes.
The Diamond Princess received far more attention…
While the outbreak in February 2020 on the cruise ship The Diamond Princess (where most of the passengers were over the age of 70) has received far more media attention (and helped frame the “deadly virus” narrative), I think the mortality rate and IFR on these three naval vessels should have told the vast majority of world citizens they have nothing to fear from this virus.
I also note that nobody under the age of 70 on The Diamond Princess died from Covid. (Also, some of these possible Covid deaths happened weeks after passengers had finally been allowed off this ship).
Something else is killing most alleged Covid victims, not this virus…
Again, my major takeaway from my research and contrarian analysis is that something else must have been the true cause of death for the vast majority of alleged Covid victims, especially among the younger age cohorts.
The spike in all-cause deaths that began after the lockdowns has to be explained by dozens of reasons instead of this virus. It was the response to the virus, not the virus, that better explains most of these purported “Covid deaths.”
These reasons would/might include ventilators, remdesivir, not giving pneumonia patients antibiotics, dehydration, over prescription of powerful sedatives, isolation, panic, depression, etc.
If we’re counting all excess deaths, the mRNA “vaccines” probably caused millions of deaths. Spikes in suicides, homicides, domestic assaults, drug overdoses, accidents, and deaths from delayed diagnoses from treatable diseases are other causes that no doubt explain the massive surge in extra deaths in the last three years.
Basically, if my hypothesis is correct that the Covid mortality rate should have remained constant, this would mean that, even today, millions of deaths attributed to Covid probably aren’t occurring from Covid or Covid alone.
Even I admit this would constitute a scandal almost too mind-boggling to consider...
...but I’m considering it because that’s what my “early spread” hypothesis strongly suggests.
If this virus wasn’t deadly in December 2019 or January 2020, it shouldn’t have suddenly become “deadly” a year later…nor today.
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Republished from the author’s Substack
