They would need to show an absolute risk reduction in the order of 15-20% to terminate early unless it is trending positive in every other subgroup i.e. ventilator free days was strongly positive and they hit mortality ARR on 7 day mortality figures which would have a lot more data points. Not sure how much of the data they would be reviewing as they would probably have 7 day mortality data for half the cohort by the review date.
Control mortality is looking like it will be closer to 30-40% rather than what was suggested in the EAP, the lower the control mortality is the harder it is to show a mortality benefit.
COVID ARDS interim analysis, page-24
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