g'day @tristanc and @mowibble... I'm not very knowledgeable in economic analysis terms but I think you both present interesting and relevant arguments. Certainly the logistic curve is quite apt in describing aspects of the phenomenon that we are experiencing. I'm often dubious as to the applicability of predictive analyses as, like all forms of modelling, they can at best be described as providing guidance and at least are speculative. Too many factors to cram into a data set for any serious probability of predictability being achieved imo.
What we truly have here is an infection which is unprecedented (there's that word again) pandemic in modern times. And we're trying to understand the human and the economic with this vast variable which throws out most previously stable data collation methods.
As such I was wrong to post above regarding the parabolic nature of the model. Certainly we cannot exclude the bell-curve in such understanding as any parabolic model will be influenced by social responses to the virus and this underpins the economic case.
I rather liked Morrison's description of the epidemiological modelling they released yesterday. It is truly theoretical and not directly related to the Aus context. As such a general application can shed some light but IMO this only really throws the shadowy areas into stark relief, demonstrating the flaws in such efforts to understand what we are facing and where we can expect changes.
Also we can never afford to ignore chaos theory, stochastics, as whatever can happen is just as likely to occur as what we expect to happen.
only my thoughts... its just a truly complex puzzle for me... perhaps you have thoughts that are more clear than mine...
stay safe and positive... for all we know the future may be better than the past. Scott.
