Taking a step back, the points guiding my opinion are:1. The...

Taking a step back, the points guiding my opinion are:

1. The data overall are hard to parse as they are disparate so aggregation is fraught with issues
2. Government interventions are easy to track but behavioral modification is harder. There are trackable metrics but they all have deficiencies.
3. Major behavioural modifications seem to occur, irrespectively, by word of mouth spread.

So fundamentally - each place will have reached its own equilibrium reflecting the exhaustion. As soon as behaviour changes, there is the risk of the virus spreading. As far as I am aware, the places with behaviour that most closely resembles pre-Covid behaviour are those with no significant community transmission. As such, it follows that the virus is unlikely to be exhausted.

It is very hard to know. The smartest people I know are mostly reserving judgement.