Suppression is not a concept that aligns to the mathematics of the COVID-19 virus.
I wanted the Victoria-NSW border closed 2 weeks ago. Back then Melbourne probably could have gotten away with a quick 2 week lockdown and things could be back to normal now. Now they have a 6+ week lockdown.
Critical border control didn't happen and infected Victorians were welcomed into NSW by the carload, trainload and planeload.
My first inclination has been to brickbat the responsible politicians. I'm still cranky with the the politicians BUT I must remind myself that they are ordinary people. Most politicians don't have skillsets to observe what happens with COVID in terms of statistics and probability (and of course COVID is both stealthy and variable in its communicability). Politicians have also been infected both directly and indirectly with Trumpist conspiracy theories from the US. This is a worry because US morons persist in viewing public health and economic health as competing objectives, They aren't!
Back to NSW. The next 2 days are critical. Casula and surrounding suburbs should NOW be on a stay at home order for 2 weeks. If 9 cases are verified there will probably be another 20 cases out there who have not been tested and won't be tested until some of them pass it on to other people who may not be centred in Casula or surrounding suburbs. Infected people could be heading to work tomorrow on buses and trains. That event will put the whole of Sydney in lockdown.
NSW has a choice. NSW can either act quickly and strongly NOW or wait until there are enough infections to "politically justify" a lockdown by which time there will be so many infections that a state wide lockdown for 6 weeks will be required.
We appear to keep repeating the mistakes of others and our own mistakes. Politically we are unable to learn from the evidence that surrounds us all.
Subject to any undisclosed manoeuvrings I don't know about I believe it's time for the Chief Health Officers of Victoria and NSW to resign. From what I can see neither have delivered the COVID mitigation message strongly enough into the admittedly thick heads of relevant politicians. I don't know. Maybe I couldn't do better but maybe there are knowledgeable mathematically aware people out there with persuasive characters who can do the job more effectively.
The stakes are too high to just wait and see for another week in NSW.
