Sona might get there before us, but when our more accurate and flu inclusive test comes out, we will take some good market share off them.
There's a big enough market for both of us and there's a place for when each test may be required. How I see it is, the two different tests will be desired with different scenarios.
A pure Covid-19 test may be required during boarder crossing or air travel, as the authorities only wants to find out whether you are carrying the virus or not, and a Covid only test should technically be cheaper. Whereas in hospitals or health clinics, you would probably want the multiplex test that can show you whether the symptoms that you feel are just from the flu, though this test should be more expensive.
I personally see ADO coming out with 2 different tests, Covid only to compete with Sonia's test where required, then the Covid/flu A/B test to completely dominate the healthcare space.
Oh, and if our test is more sensitive, it will also help with early detection, which is another must have feature in the test to help eliminate Covid-19.
As for revenue, I wouldn't have a clue, but here are some numbers/things to consider.
- We are currently at about 200,000+ new cases a day and growing.
- If 1 out of 3 people tested are positive, then there would be 600,000+ tests done per day.
- If positive rate is lower then there's even more tests performed per day.
- As for marker share, how many % of testers would rather use a rapid 15min test on-site at anywhere, rather than test then bring samples into a lab to evaluate?
- Will cheaper and faster testing encourage more companies or governments to perform more testing?
- This won't be like a yearly flu vaccine, a person already tested can be retested within days, weeks or months, so repeat patients and continuous supply is almost certain
