Covid19 is not the problem

Originally posted by thorburn: ↑

A friend of mine is a doctor at a Jakarta hospital.

He is about to start work and is waiting for his 'rain coat' to dry before he goes into the crowded covid19 wards. The protective eyewear he is to wear is the type you buy in Bunnings for lawn mowing, they too are drying after being hand washed.

24 doctors have died in Indonesia in their last 4 days and government analysts warn that the peak could be could be in July with more than 100,000 dead over an archipelago of 70,000 island and 270,000 million people. Present official infections are around 2,500 with over 200 dead. I say official because personally I don't believe government figures. The government had 2 months to prepare but dithered and now medical staff have limited protective equipment and are dying as a result.

My friend's life is at risk because of this.

Indonesia is a myriad of cultures and languages galvanized by a weak political system riddled with corruption and a headstrong aggressive military.

The President has proved weak and indecisive in first denying any infections nationally even as little as 3 weeks ago and when this epidemic really takes hold the present complacency in the population will turn to terror. Law and order within the microcosms of Indonesian cultures could easily dissolve.

West Timor based military may see East Timor as an easy target again, West Irian could see ethnic papuans revolt against an oppressive existence, Balinese may see a chance to self govern, Muslim extremists all over the country may see the chance to establish Muslim states throughout Indonesia including the whole of Java, Ache could over run it's borders to expand it's religious state plus many other small ethnic enclaves seeing this as a time to size what they believe has been taken from then.

The chances of a military coupe are high on the list of potential unrest and such a move may start a grizzly civil war that would lead to unimaginable bloodshed.

Imagine a Yugoslavia on our doorstep.

Not only do we have the virus to deal with but a new lifestyle based business consolidation, permanent loss of full time employment, a lower standard of living and a declining economy we also have a regional geopolitical shift on out very front door step.

Watch Indonesia. It's stability is vital to our way of life. Indonesians will become confused and disoriented as their old life changes. But then won't we all.

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Thanks for posting this thorburn, it is definitely something that needs watching here in Aus.
Just Bali itself has been decimated so far as Tourism go's already on an economic level, but Indonesia as you already stated as a whole is such a mixed bag of religion, politics, culture and class with a not so great Country wide healthcare system and an all too ready Military Regime that is not
adverse to stepping in when things get out of hand.

From what I have been reading, testing itself for Covid19 is very limited and is mainly concentrated in the Metro areas with Jakarta itself only being able to administer around 250 test's per day. There is already a very serious simmering religious divide in some areas of Indonesia that the Gov't has only just barely kept a lid on and even in general, political divides quite often become violent even with ample police and military on the streets.

270 million people, half the country lives on less than $95 US per month, many much much less than that.

I think think the Gov't was very slow to move on this Virus, they claimed for a month or more that they were free from Covid19 and even now the testing regime is a very poor effort. I can't see how Indonesia will cope when it comes to treatment for this epidemic once the numbers get rolling.

I also think that those on the front line, the medical providers will succumb to this virus in a very big way, they are already recycling PPE gear and it will only get worse as things progress. The death toll is likely to be horrendous in Indonesia and I fear for your friend.

Another thing to look for is the sorry fact that the CCP will take advantage of the economic turmoil this will bring to Indonesia and move to buy up strategic lands and Industry as the country suffers in all this, No doubt they will provide a Helping Hand all the while seeking to further their own Agenda as well by snapping up Port's and Harbours along with other strategic Business' and Land while the Country is going into recession as a result.

If the Gov't of Indonesia is unable to cope in all this then Australia will need to be prepared to see the same sort of refugee crisis we did after the Vietnam War, there will be boat loads of people trying to escape the turmoil as @Stanbutler mentions, just the religious divides themselves will see unimaginable carnage the likes we have not seen for decades if the Gov't unravels as a result. East Timor will look like a walk in the park. I Hope your Friend Stay's Safe thorburn.