coyote plant, page-43

When someone suggests a scoping study outcome is not realistic or that ABM will need $70-100mill to get into production, then that implies a significant degree of dishonesty amongst management.
You do not put out scoping study results unless you believe they are appropriate or unless you are trying to fool investors.
I have seen nothing to date to give me reason to doubt the integrity of management.
I only hold stocks where management prove themselves to be honest.
If that changes, I’m out.
That doesn’t mean I would sell if the scale of this project grew sufficiently to justify a larger more costly plant. There is nothing dishonest about making justifiable changes and no doubt the value of the project would grow under that scenario.

Andy Well is the closest comparison that I came up with to OP although while AW starts at surface, most of it will be mined using u/g mining while OP is 100% open pit for its initial study. AW uses a full processing plant while OP only requires a gravity recovery plant.
Capex for AW is $55mill so $27mill for OP with gravity recovery only does not seem unrealistic at all.
Doray secured a debt package for Andy Well (17Sep) for $55mill to cover 100% of start up capex.
That is $55mill debt on a project with projected EBIT of just $117mill (256,000oz).
They also recently undertook a cr to cover working capital including ongoing exploration before project start up mid next year.

We have $20mill plus for working capital and there is no reason why we can’t debt fund 100% of the $27mill capex if Doray was able to fully debt fund theirs.
We need $27mill capex (half the capex of Andy Well, but our EBIT is projected at a much larger $257mill (compared to $55mill and $117mill for Andy Well).
Recent discoveries including GH pretty much guarantee our EBIT will be much higher than $257mill after capex.
There is no reason at this stage why we need a cr although that may change and we might need a small cr which would not be significantly dilutive.
A $20mill cr only dilutes us by roughly 10%.
Possible reasons for a cr might include the project growing well beyond the current size where it makes more sense to put in a larger plant or increased exploration expenditure being justified by further discoveries on our very large tenement. Either option is likely to add strong shareholder value and any cr should be at a much higher price than the current sp if the project grew by that much.
However too much talk of cr when there is no justification to expect one at this stage.
There was talk of a cr when this was below 4c. Here we are at 5.9 and trending up strongly over the last few months.