The markets are largely a self-fulfilling prophecy on steroids....

The markets are largely a self-fulfilling prophecy on steroids. If everyone bought in to the whole 'gap closing' theory, then of course the gap will close. But if people ignored it, then it's just random. To predict what the market will do you would need to predict what others are predicting and be one step ahead. If everyone is trying to do the same, it becomes a nightmare. Better to simply invest when its cheap based on fundamentals and sell when it's expensive. Get your spreadsheet out and do your due diligence.