The bottom line here is as a Country Australia will need to find another $60 billion of net exports within the next 18 months due to Chinese balancing trade with Aus for whatever reasons.
The China $60 billion trade surplus has allowed us to run trade deficits with other supplier countries in: -Automobiles -trucks & machinery -petroleum procducts -clothing and textiles & footwear -Whitegoods & electronics -aeroplanes -war hardware & software etc etc.
We see what happens countries that experience prolonged trade deficits: -either they print enormous amounts of money putting future generatuions into enormous debt ( ala Argentina) with the US to come -or the cant afford imports like the USSR.
China imitated and beat the USA industrially over the past 30 years so what is wrong with Aus imitating and beating the Chinese in steelmaking over the next 10 years? As a late starter we can utilise the latest technologies/automation and economies of scale rather than trying to re-invent the wheel.
30 years ago the Chinese bought an obsolete Ruhr Vallet Krupp steel smeltter, dismantles it, shipped it to China and refurbed it and started to smelt iron ore & roll steel as the stage up from Mao's village smelting forges. We dont ave to do that because, unlike China then, we can source the capital without project equity caveats and go for it 21st C style.
The only objections: (a) too high local labour input costs: Solution : hire guest labour fron the global lowest wage cost regions as guest workers (b) Too much red tape & trade unionism Solution: ban both in SEZs (c) Too high environmental & safety standards Solution: employ similar standards in SEZs to the major steel exporters: China, Japan, Korea & Tiawan.
