Lets put things into perspective and remove the emotion as this is very challenging for some to do with the emotion they attach to money.
If you go back to 2016 there was as we all know, a cornerstone investor who agreed to providing a $10 million investment. After this was announced the share price was on the rise and once at 4.2c (slightly inflated based on hype of announcement) it went into trading halt and then a 6-7 month suspension followed. As we all know the agreement broke down as from what it seems, the cornerstone investor lead the company on a wild goose chase that went no where. Raising $10 million without diluting the share price is a major factor as to why there was a nice little run higher in SP.
GMC now with little to no leverage, lets be honest, had to raise capital ($12 million) and thus dilute the share price in order to get this thing going.
Once the announcement that the full $12 million subscription had been received we saw a raise in price from 0.7c - 2.5c.
Once again slightly inflated due to hype from announcement which is quite normal but things will always revert back to the median.
In terms of the current share price:
The new Indonesian investment group who have funded the majority of the $15million which will now get this through to production have agreed to subscribe at 1.5c.
As we all know attached to this funding are several conditions which need to be met, as well as the two smelters used as security. The risk this now adds to an already risky and delayed project, its no wonder we are seeing an accumulation/ sell off at the 1.2c mark. I think that is fairly valued with where everything "currently" sits.
As we saw in April as we were approaching the end of the month on expectation of receiving the $6 million as well as other milestones being met, another rise in share price hitting the 1.5c mark.
On the news that there would be yet another delay in receiving the $6 million until the end of May the share price is now sitting back at the 1.2c mark. This seems very self explanatory and fairly valued to me as I am sure it does to many others.
I believe the current share price of 1.2c-1.3c is reflected by the amount of risk associated with the project and the risk associated with the conditions on the funding.
For me personally there is so much upside to this project if you are willing to take the risk but we will not see a fairly valued move in price until there is a de-risking - the $15 million has been received as well as the smelters constructed on site. That is when I believe this will re rate to a fair value around the 3c-5c mark.
Not to mention potential DSO sales which as mentioned by Hamish are currently progressing.
Once into production from first two smelters the sky's the limit for GMC. Steady cash flow and rising fm prices (especially for low-medium carbon fm) will see them in quite a tasty position in my opinion.
Cheers guys have a great week!!!
GMC Price at posting:
1.2¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
