crazy price, page-3

My calcs on adults only model...

total patient population = 75000
Adults (42%) = 75000 x 42% = 31,500

Base case uptake 30% = 31500 x 30% = 9450

Revenues @ $10k pa = 9450 x 10k = 94.5M

Cost of sales = 50M

Earnings = 94.5M (revenue) - 50M (cost of sales) = 44.5M

Shares outstanding: 229M


Earnings per share = 44.5M / 229M = 19.4c per share

Base case PE = 6

Stock price: 6 x 19.4 = $1.16


There you have it.. my base case price target is revised to $1.16 per share.

I am guessing Lombard used higher % of patient uptake and possibly higher pricing model or PE to come up with his $1.50 target.


Note: I topped up at 70c today