Being a long term investor in CRK I really should not be concerned with the daily or weekly gyrations of the share price. It matters not a whit to me whether the share price goes down to an abysmal one dollar or a seemingly high five dollars.
I shan't sell a single share until a hungry major comes knocking on the door wishing to acquire the whole show for the right price - considerably more than five dollars a share in my view.
Yet I am fascinated by the way shares move and the reasons why. The Fibonacci low for CRK I estimated at $1.40 . When that level was reached there was an immediate increase in the level of interest in buying the shares. Until then the share price ground inexorably down to $1.40 no matter how much good news came out. The Australian recommended buying at $1.89 and it had no effect. J P Morgan and Associates bought a sizable chunk and it had no effect. Reserves were upgraded by a million ounces, no effect. I suspect though that when the new upgrades come through they will in fact have an effect.
All the talk about buying gold juniors and the value they represent plus the majors on the war path for new reserves will add to the momentum. Plus there is considerable upward pressure on the gold price and talk of $US1,200 an ounce being easily reached plus a possibility of the old Aden Sisters forecast of $3,000 an ounce.
I may be wrong of course but I believe CRK is now on an inexorable upward path. I'd be interested in your view. What price will it reach and when?
Do you agree with my assessment or do you think it has further downside potential?
As I say it won't affect my holding one way or the other but I would be interested in what others think.
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