Traders were bracing for surprises from today's Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports, and the USDA data dump didn't disappoint anyone looking for some eye-popping numbers. Big surprises all around, both bullish and bearish, should mean more volatile trading.
Soybeans should open sharply higher this morning, following a bullish 2012 planting intentions number from USDA. The government said farmers intend to plant just 73.9 million acres of soybeans this spring, 1.4 million less than trade guesses. Wheat should also start the session higher, following a bullish spring wheat acreage estimate from USDA this morning. The government said farmers plan to put in just 12 million acres of spring wheat, not far from the Farm Futures survey tally but 1.3 million below trade guesses. With winter wheat acreage off a little from January's first estimate, all wheat acreage would be 55.9 million, 1.5 million below trade guesses. USDA's March 1 inventory tally of 1.2 billion bushels was also below trade guesses, implying better feed usage in the Dec-Feb quarter. Futures on milling quality wheat in Europe gained 2.65% after the report, with traders still concerned about moisture for the crop. Spain and Germany are picking up a few showers, but France remains dry.
